Astros' Magic Number: 3

With the Astros' win over the St. Louis Cardinals 3-1 tonight, combined with the Phillies' 2-3 loss to the NY Mets, leaves the Astros with a magic number of 3.

As a result of the Astros' win, the NY Mets and the Florida Marlins were mathematically eliminated from the NL wild card race, leaving only the Phillies and the Astros in the race. The way each team looks right now, the Astros are set to win their second straight NL Wild Card title. This would likely set up a NLDS match-up with the Atlanta Braves for a second straight season.

While the Astros' offense is not quite what it was last year with Carlo$ Beltran on board, it certainly looks like the pitching is set to carry us far into the playoffs. Don't forget - playoffs in baseball are all about your three man rotation. Therefore, I have but three words for the rest of Major League Baseball.....

..... Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte.

Hurricane Distraction - Back to Politics. Sorta.

Wow, that's pretty much dead on. I am a little disturbed that it's so close to socialist, but I'm not surprised.

You are a Social Liberal (70% permissive) and an... Economic Liberal (21% permissive) You are best described as a: Strong Democrat Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid

Rita Now Headed Right for Houston

Not only is Rita now one of the most dangerous hurricanes to ever form in the Atlantic, but now it's knocking on my back door.

I'm still planning on staying until I hear evacuation orders, but this is certainly testing my resolution.

Rita now a Category 5

Category 5. Ouch:

WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Everyone get ready to settle in and ride this baby out.

Rita Approaching Category 5 Status

The National Hurricane Service is now reporting that a reconnaissance aircraft has measured 150 mph winds to bring Hurricane Rita very close to reaching Category 5 status (>155 mph).

Preparing to Weather Rita

At this point, I feel pretty confident in waiting out Hurricane Rita from the relative comfort of my Montrose townhouse. I'm basing my decision on a couple of factors:

• Forecasts of the storm have it making landfall a decent distance south of Houston (although this could change with little notice)
• The City of Houston will likely not issue even a voluntary evacuation order for the Montrose area
• My townhouse was built in 1973, shares the sidewalls with other townhouses, and seems to be built fairly well.
• I'm confident that even if power goes out, I'm in a densely populated area where CenterPoint Energy will make it a priority to restore power.

Tonight I'll brave the crowds at my local Kroger to stock up on water, canned and otherwise non-perishable food, extra propane for the grill, batteries, and plenty of beer.

In the meantime, I need to check with my landlord to see if he'll be doing anything to board windows. If not, I'll need to make a quick decision as to whether I need to board windows myself or just hope the wind doesn't blow hard enough to break any windows.

Rita Could Reach Category 5 Within 24 Hours

The National Hurricane Center's 10AM CDT advisory contains this frightening forecast:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

I'm currently also listening to 740AM KTRH here in Houston to keep up to date on any developments during the work day.

Rita: Category 4 Hurricane and Growing

Rita has reached Category 4 status this morning with maximum sustained winds of 135 MPH. Based on the model projections above, it appears that Galveston/Houston will avoid a direct hit, but will suffer what meteorologicists refer to as the "dirty" side of a hurricane - the side where most of the rain occurs.

Still awaiting word from the City of Houston as to whether my area (Montrose) will be asked to evacuate. There is currently a plan to ask people in low lying areas of the city to evacuate tomorrow morning.

Rita Projected to Reach Category 4 Strength

The Houston Chronicle's SciGuy is reporting on his blog that Rita is currently projected to reach a very strong Category 4 status. The National Hurricane Service has also predicted that Rita will gain significant strength as it moves across the Gulf and will reach Category 3 status sometime Wednesday.

Perry Declares Texas to be a Disaster Area

The Chronicle is reporting that Texas Gov. Rick Perry has declared Texas to be a disaster area in anticipation of the damage that could be caused upon Hurricane Rita's landfall on the Texas coast.

Of course, Perry spokeswoman Kathy Walt couldn't resist taking a shot at Louisiana officials in making the announcement:

A FEMA official is already at the State Operations Center, which went on full alert status today with 34 state agencies on site around the clock, said Perry spokeswoman Kathy Walt.

"FEMA has already been part of this. They have offered whatever support we need,'' Walt said. "Texas is not Louisiana. You won't see that breakdown occurring here.''

Real professionalism, I gotta say.

Rita now a Category 2 Hurricane

The National Hurricane Center is now reporting that Rita has reached 100 mph winds, placing it as a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Scale.

Galveston Begins Voluntary Evacuations; Mandatory Evacuation Set for 5 p.m. Wed.

The Chronicle is reporting that Galveston officials have issued voluntary evacuation orders as Hurricane Rita continues on a course to strike the Texas coast just north of Matagorda Island. A mandatory evacuation will be ordered on Wednesday at 5 p.m. CDT unless the hurricane's projected path varies significantly from current forecasts.

The more I look at the evacuation map above and look at the forecasts, I believe I wouldn't be in too much danger holding out in my house. Unless I hear of any evacuation orders from the City of Houston, I'll be riding out the storm in the Montrose.

Thoughts on a Chief Justice Roberts

I honestly don't know where I stand on the idea of a Roberts Court after living through the Rehnquist Court. I didn't get much of a chance to follow the confirmation hearings, but I did catch some parts of hearings on C-SPAN's website and through media reports on the hearings.

One thing I do like about Judge Roberts: the far-left considers him too conservative and the far-right considers him too liberal. What's not to love about that?

My favorite aspect of Roberts is reflected in a recent editorial from The New Republic:

"I do not have an overarching judicial philosophy," Roberts told the hearings. It is impossible to imagine Antonin Scalia or Clarence Thomas uttering those words. And, he added, "I tend to look at the cases from the bottom up rather than the top down." This is a man animated by the law, not by the movement. He rejected the dogma that the Constitution should rigidly be construed in accordance with its original understanding, and he endorsed "a more practical and pragmatic approach."

Bingo.

Update: Hurricane Rita

As of 8:15AM CDT, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL is reporting that Tropical Storm Rita has now strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane.

The official projected path, as of 4AM CDT, has the hurricane passing just south of Galveston, possibly sparing us a direct hit. Of course, this projection should start to become more reliable in the next 24 hours as the storm approaches a point where landfall on the Texas coast falls within the 3-day projection as opposed to the less reliable 5-day projection.

It's our turn: Hurricane Rita

There was some concern that refugees from New Orleans would bring the chaos and crime of the city with them to Houston. Instead, it looks like they brought the bad weather.

The map to the right here is the projected path of now-Tropical Storm Rita (as of 10AM CDT). It is expected that this storm will become a Category 1 hurricane by later today or tonight. The Chronicle is reporting that the storm could be a Category 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall. The high percentage target? Galveston, Texas.

If you're in the Galveston/Houston area, it would be in your best interest to get the plywood collected now and prepare to board up your windows and head for the hills (Texas hill country, that is).

I suppose if things start to look bad for Houston, I'll take an early camping trip to Lost Maples State Natural Area or enjoy the riverwalk in San Antonio.